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Prediction for CME (2017-09-04T20:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-09-04T20:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/12989/-1
CME Note: Associated with M5.5 flare from AR 12673. CME start time was updated from 2017-09-04T23:06Z. Note that there was also a CME starting on 2017-09-04T19:39Z that was slightly slower but in a similar direction and was likely "merged" with the faster 2017-09-04T20:36Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-09-06T23:08Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0
Dst min. in nT: -23
Dst min. time: 2017-09-07T09:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-09-06T18:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2017 Sep 05 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at high levels due to Region 2673 (S08W22,
Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) producing multiple M-class flares, the largest of
which was a M5 flare observed at 04/2033 UTC. This region showed steady
growth throughout the period, in addition to becoming more complex
magnetically. Region 2674 (N14E01, Fhi/beta) was relatively stable
producing only one C1/sf flare early in the period. The remaining
regions were stable and inactive.

Initial available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery indicated a likely
asymmetric full halo CME was associated with the M5 flare from Region
2673. In addition, Type-II and Type-IV radio sweeps were observed
around the time of the M5 flare, beginning at 04/2042 UTC, as well as 
10cm radio bursts. Initial analysis of WSA/Enlil model output determined
the CME to arrive mid-to-late on 6 Sep. Additional analysis of the CME
will be conducted to gather a consensus arrival time/intensity forecast.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the
next three days (05-07 Sep) mostly due to the flare potential and recent
history of Region 2673. Radio blackouts reaching the R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) levels are expected for the next three days (05-07
Sep), with a chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum
flux of 15,800 pfu observed at 04/1805 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux values observed an enhancement that was associated with the
M5 flare from Region 2673, reaching S2 (Moderate) levels (peak flux: 106
pfu at 05/0720 UTC).

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high
levels for the next three days (04-06 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to continue at S1 (Minor) levels over the next
three days.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained elevated due to influences from a
polar-connected, positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds were steady
around 475 km/s for most of the reporting period, then began to increase
to around 585 km/s near the end of the day. Total magnetic field
strength was at a nominal 5 nT through about 04/1600 UTC, increased to 9
nT briefly, then leveled back off late in the day. Bz was predominately
variable, then remained southward for several hours, seeing a maximum
southward deflection to -7 nT. Phi angle was mostly in a positive
orientation, but began to show signs of rotation by midday.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to continue to trend towards
background levels late on day one (05 Sep). Enhanced levels are expected
on days two and three (06-07 Sep) due to possible impacts from the 04
Sep CME.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated
G1-Minor geomagnetic storming period at the end of the day, likely
associated with sustained -Bz.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels, with
isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming periods early in the period, as
the CH HSS influence tapers over the next day (05 Sep). Days two and
three (06-07 Sep) are expected to be elevated due to the arrival of the
04 Sep CME. G2 (Moderate) conditions are expected, with isolated G3
(Strong) conditions likely on both days.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

Lead Time: 34.63 hour(s)
Difference: 5.13 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) on 2017-09-05T12:30Z

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